Biblioteca

Este estudio aborda cómo el cambio climático afectaría la actividad económica nacional, evaluando las potenciales modificaciones en la disponibilidad de los recursos naturales y las actividades productivas más sensibles a cambios en el clima (agricultura, ganadería altoandina, minería, energía hidroeléctrica, turismo y pesca), tanto en términos físicos como sociales. También se analizan dos sectores transversales, la infraestructura y la salud, que son condicionantes para el desempeño productivo.

This activity report draws on eight case studies to raise awareness of existing institutional arrangements that support adaptation at different governance levels. The report identifies the main challenges those institutions face and highlight key lessons learned from their work and define a set of concrete measures to enhance the effectiveness of institutional arrangements.

This manual aims to facilitate greater access to electricity by rural communities through the provision of climate finance under a National Appropriate Mitigation Action (“NAMA”). The paper describes a model approach to financing the development, implementation and operation of a sector-wide programme for renewable energy rural electrification.

This policy document explores the relationship between climate change and poverty by examining the impact of climate change on 1) poor people’s livelihoods and wellbeing, 2) the risk for non-poor people to fall into poverty and 3) the ability of poor people to escape poverty. The paper concludes that climate change is likely to represent a major obstacle to a sustained eradication of poverty. Climate policies are compatible with poverty reduction by the appropriate set of social policies, and climate change does not modify how poverty policies should be designed, but rather, it creates greater needs and more urgency due to more frequent and more severe shocks and extreme weather events. 

This manual highlights the complementarities and potential trade-offs between REDD+ and adaptation actions. The manual suggests that ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change (EBA) may help to achieve REDD+ objectives. Furthermore, the implementation of REDD+ activities can maintain and enhance ecosystem services that can support societal adaptation, and REDD+ actions may also influence aspects of adaptive capacity. 

This analytical report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations. Across the three regions studied in this report, record-breaking temperatures are occurring more frequently, rainfall has increased in intensity in some places, while drought-prone regions are getting dryer.

This mannual aims 1) to raise awareness of important roles of genetic resources for food and agriculture against climate change and 2) to contribute to the mainstreaming of genetic resources into climate change adaptation and mitigation planning at national and international levels. Based on several thematic studies, the mannual presents an overview of the complex interactions between climate change and plant, animal, forest, aquatic, invertebrate and micro-organism genetic resources. The manual concludes that if agriculture aims to adapt to climate change and achieve food security and nutrition goals in the coming decades, food production systems and ecosystems need to become more flexible, multifunctional and capable of providing multiple services.

Los efectos del cambio climático sobre Bolivia son de interés tanto científico como político. Para estudiar estos efectos se usó los datos producidos por el modelo climático regional PRECIS para la región de Bolivia. La validación del modelo se realizó comprando los datos observados en superficie a nivel mensual en el periodo 1961-1990, con aquellos obtenidos del modelo. Adicionalmente, se analizaron los valores climatológicos para los periodos 1961-1990 y 2071-2100. El análisis muestra un incremento promedio de 4,4ºC para el territorio boliviano con el máximo incremento en la zona norte del país y en la zona del Altiplano Sur. Los cambios proyectados en temperatura indicarían que el incremento estaría por encima de la variabilidad climática. Por su parte, los resultados sugieren una mayor precipitación en la zona de tierras bajas durante el verano con el consiguiente riesgo de inundaciones. Las características asociadas a los modelos de clima, así como las incertidumbres asociadas a sus proyecciones, hacen que las conclusiones obtenidas en este estudio deban ser tratadas con precaución. Un análisis de varias corridas con condiciones de contorno y condiciones iniciales diferentes, así como estudios de sensibilidad, son recomendables para reducir la incertidumbre en las proyecciones. 

El estudio consiste en un análisis probabilista del riesgo de huracanes considerando los efectos del cambio climático. En el estudio se comparan los resultados de pérdidas esperadas en infraestructura pública y privada causadas por huracanes, considerando escenarios de cambio climático.  El estudio analiza el posible impacto de huracanes con diferentes periodos de recurrencia, desde 50 años hasta 1000 años. Además de los valores para el conjunto del país, el estudio efectúa análisis específicos de la Ciudad de Guatemala, Ocós, Zacapa, Santiago de Atitlán, Los Pocitos y Puerto Barrios. Así mismo, cada ciudad fue analizada en base al departamento, sector, sistema estructural, uso, categoría y nivel socioeconómico de la infraestructura.

This analytical report proposes and estimates a default risk model for agricultural lenders, which explicitly accounts for two risks that are endemic to agricultural activities: commodity price volatility and climate. The results indicate that both factors are relevant in explaining the occurrence of default in the portfolio of a rural bank. In addition, the paper illustrates how to integrate the default risk model into standard techniques of portfolio credit risk modeling. The portfolio credit risk model provides a quantitative tool to estimate the loss distribution and the economic capital for a rural bank. The estimated parameters of the default risk model, along with scenarios for the evolution of the risk factors, are used to construct stress tests on the portfolio of a rural bank. These stress tests indicate that climate factors have a larger effect on economic capital than commodity price volatility.

This analytical report published by Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) estimates the effects of epidemic outbreaks on health vulnerability. The model proposed is empirically tested for five countries in Latin America, where dengue is a national health priority. Using data from national censuses, satellite climate information and data from a newly developed disease outbreak surveillance online platform, the paper finds that climate has non-negligible effects on health vulnerability. The evidence found and the vulnerability index constructed can be used to analyze the main determinants of vulnerability in order to address policy concerns.

This analytical paper published by Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) studies the link between severe weather shocks in Colombia and municipality-level incidence of dengue and malaria. The unexpectedly high variability of the 2010 rainfalls relative to previous periods and their regional heterogeneity are exploited as an identification strategy. The results confirm that the relationship between climate events and vector-borne diseases is intricate. The 2010 weather shocks are associated with not only an increase in the number of dengue cases but also with a decrease in its incidence (particularly in the presence of extreme rain events). Floods seem to have decreased the number of dengue cases.

This analytical report published by Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) outlines four key climate-smart agriculture techniques: conservation agriculture (tillage, cover crops, and rotation), irrigation, agroforestry, and soil conservation structures. The report examines the results of current research on the effects of these techniques, their gaps and limitations, and the extent to which they have been adopted in Latin America. The analysis presents how better to design projects promoting climate-smart agriculture and assesses their future impact on Latin American farmers.

This analytical report published by Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) uses year-to-year variation in temperature to estimate the long-term effects of climate change on health outcomes in Mexico. Combining temperature data at the district level and three rounds of nationally representative household surveys, an individual’s health as an adult is matched with the history of heat waves from birth to adulthood.  It is shown that exposure to higher temperatures early in life has negative consequences on adult height. Most importantly, the effects are concentrated at the times where children experience growth spurts (infancy and adolescence). 

This analytical report published by Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) attempts to identify the climatic effect on birth outcomes in Brazil. Panel data models indicate that excess and lack of rainfall have the most important harmful effects on newborns’ health (temperature stresses and low relative humidity also have effects). The use of climate change forecasts for Brazil suggests a possible increase of 305 neonatal deaths annually and three thousand additional low-weight births each year. The paper further examines public policy’s role in minimizing the effects of extreme weather. 

This analytical report published by Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) identifies the climate impacts on dengue risk in Brazil by using a comparative case study on the synthetic controls approach. The results suggest that dengue is more prevalent in warmer regions, but the humidity conditions and amount of rainfall seem fundamental for increase of the diseases prevalence in temperate climate regions or drier tropical regions of the country. Due to expected climate changes in the future, the dengue fever distribution in the country might change, which requires public policy to minimize these effects.

This manual is published by Mitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture (MICCA) programme in Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Mitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture. The report describes the negative environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emission) caused by peatland drainage and presents the practical management system to reduce these negative impacts with several case studies. 

This visual aid presents data provided by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) emissions database. The data presented concerns the emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use, including which are the largets emitters of greenhouse gases, by activity or region.

This analytical report charts the intimate interaction of climate change with other key issues on the global agenda, and identifies the requirement this places on governments and international agencies to develop a new level of policy coherence. It warns business that both the success or failure of climate policy will transform the landscape of risk and opportunity for investment. The report further urges the faster and more imaginative development of partnerships between governments, international agencies, businesses and civil society organizations.

This analytical document presents the business case for private sector adaptation to climate change in ways that build the resilience of vulnerable communities in developing countries – and provides useful guidance to business leaders and policymakers alike.